Supplementary study to the final report examines the impact of hydrogen demand for eSAF production on the hydrogen supply

This supplementary report extends the scope of the HyNEAT final project report by integrating the hydrogen (H2) demand for H2-based Sustainable Aviation Fuels (eSAF) into the assessment of liquid hydrogen (LH2) supply infrastructure. While the main study focused exclusively on the infrastructure for direct H2 propulsion, this analysis extends that perspective by providing a comprehensive evaluation of a European airport network that accounts for the significant H2 demand associated with eSAF production. To comply with ReFuelEU Aviation mandates and overcome the scalability constraints of biogenic fuels, the sector must rely on eSAF for long-haul decarbonisation. Unlike biofuels, the power-to-liquid pathway creates a substantial demand for renewable H2. Consequently, this study determines the future for eSAF and LH2 demand and models the parallel supply chains for LH2 and eSAF to determine their aggregated impact on the European energy system, infrastructure optimisation, and macroeconomic landscape across varying uptake scenarios.

What we have found:

• The inclusion of eSAF as specified in the ReFuelEU aviation regulation significantly increases the total H2 demand of the aviation sector, as eSAF production generates a massive indirect H2 demand that exceeds the demand of direct LH2 propulsion by a factor of nine, even in the Moonshot scenario.
• In a cost-optimised parallel supply network, LH2 is predominantly imported via vessels from regions with low production costs, such as Chile. Conversely, gaseous H2 for European eSAF refineries is primarily supplied via pipelines from Europe and Morocco.
• The additional H2 demands for domestic eSAF production also drive up the overall LH2 costs, as the increased demand means production can no longer be limited to the most cost-effective regions in Europe.
• Meeting the European aviation demand with a 60% eSAF import share requires a massive expansion of the European energy system, including a 76% increase in solar photovoltaic capacity and a 90% increase in electrolyser capacity.
• From a macroeconomic perspective, the production of eSAF and LH2 offers significant value creation in potential export countries. Countries like Morocco and South Africa show pronounced employment multipliers due to labour-intensive supply chain phases, while Australia and Canada exhibit high household income and gross domestic product multipliers.

What we recommend:

• Infrastructure planning must proactively account for the parallel development of LH2 and eSAF supply chains to avoid resource competition and supply bottlenecks.
• A rapid and coordinated expansion of renewable energy generation, particularly solar photovoltaics, alongside electrolysis capacities is critical to meet future H2 demands without disrupting the broader European energy transition.
• Europe should establish strategic and diversified international trade partnerships to import a significant share of its eSAF and LH2 demand. This mitigates the extreme pressure on the domestic energy system while fostering global macroeconomic benefits and supply security.

The full report, including all assumptions and methodologies, is available for download here.